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Obamania and American realpolitik
By Bolaji Akinyemi and Akin Oyebode

 (Guardian Newspaper, Feb 12th, 2008)

FOR quite understandable reasons, Nigeria and Nigerians cannot but be interested in political goings-on in the United States. Aside from the historical fact that the bulk of African-Americans have their roots in Nigeria, the international nuisance value of Uncle Sam is such that we ignore events in America only to our peril. As the sole existing Superpower in the world endowed with the ability to make our lives miserable if we dare cross its path, the U.S. has continued to be a country that dominates the consciousness of not only countries of the so-called Third World but, in fact, the entire world.

The entry of Barak Hussein Obama into the race to the White House has ignited tremendous interest, especially among African-Americans and indeed Africans, a situation that can be explained by the historical marginalisation of black people. Of course, Obama is not the first black to have dropped his hat to the U.S. presidential ring but the flair he has brought to the race through his charisma and perceptiveness has been so infective, much more so than his predecessors that mere hip-hop popularity is beginning to translate to credibility and electability. Doubting Thomases have now been compelled to change their minds and seriously consider the possibility of a black First Family in 1700 Massachusetts Avenue.

Of course, the real possibility of Obama securing the nomination of the Democratic Party has set alarm bells ringing among Republicans and conservatives generally. Paradoxically, some have, in fact, discerned a conspiracy by right-wing elements to push Obama's candidacy because he was deemed an easier candidate to beat than Hillary Clinton! The reason for this is supposed to be the deep-seated, ingrained racist feelings across America. Thus, despite the media hype over Obama's campaign of change, some observers insist that America is not ready for a black President just as others also say it's not time yet for a female President. However, no-one can discount the fact that the Ivy League-educated son of a Kenyan father and a Kansas white mother has pushed the political stakes higher than they have ever been by a non-WASP contender. As the Americans love to say, the world loves a winner and nothing succeeds like success. Even some African Americans who expressed some antipathy towards his candidacy because he "wasn't black enough" would, by now, have been compelled to revise their bets. His uncanny ability to address people across racial, gender and class lines seemed to have given him a toe hold on the nomination.

Furthermore, Obama's remarkable ability to raise funds has helped put a seal on the credibility of his candidacy. As is well-known, U.S. politics is incredibly expensive which has led many to believe that ideas are just not enough. Only mega bucks can transform those ideas into votes. That Obama's war chest is constantly replenished by contributions from millions of his supporters and well-wishers is enough evidence that he is set to give Hillary Clinton a run for her money.

No doubt, Mrs. Clinton is an astute and strong contender who, if push came to shove, can arrest Obama's roller coaster but it seems her campaign of experience which, if the truth is to be told, is largely based on her role as former First Lady, might prove insufficient to restrain the forces of change. Many voters would recall that her sojourn in the White House was not altogether pleasant, what with the Monica Lewinsky affair and other less than salutary record of her husband. Besides, her initial support for the war in Iraq could prove to be her Achilles' heel, moreso in a country that has robbed George Bush of many points in the public opinion polls on account of his warmonger image.

Inevitably, goings-on in the Republican Party would influence the decision of who gets the nomination of the Democratic Party. With the fortunes of John McCane on the ascendancy, the strategists of the Democrats would be on overdrive in making projections as to who can better beat him. It should also not be forgotten that the Republican front-runner has the reputation of a maverick and is only grudgingly tolerated by the more conservative elements in his party. Besides, his aversion for economic matters is legendary when, in the final analysis, matters of jobs, health, housing, education and interest rates could be decisive in the reckoning of many Americans.

What it all adds up to is that Obama has an inside track in the Presidential race and the Democrats would be best served by galvanising the interest and panache generated by him in order not to by default return the Republicans to the White House. The young people whose imagination has been fired by Obamamania, the broad coalition that he has been able to create among the unions, minorities, rural poor and urban disinherited must not be discounted in this epic battle. Obama has unleashed forces not witnessed on the American political terrain since the Kennedy years. To refuse to acknowledge the Obama phenomenon and momentum would simply be an act of stupidity and knavery.

For the rest of us out of Africa, we can only wait and watch with bated breath at the unfolding scenario. If Americans are not to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, then they should put their money where their mouths are by cutting their political losses and restoring their positive image throughout the world. It seems, to all intents and purposes, that the only person who can make that happen now is the American with the unlikely name of Barak Hussein Obama!

  • Akinyemi and Oyebode, Professors of Political Science and Law respectively, are consultants to The Guardian Editorial Board

                                                                                                                                                


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